Thursday, February 24, 2011

My Final Oscar Predictions

My predictions are based on how I think things will actually go down and does not reflect my personal taste.

BEST PICTURE

Black Swan (Fox Searchlight)
The Fighter (Paramount)
Inception (Warner Bros.)
The Kids Are All Right (Focus Features)
The King’s Speech (The Weinstein Company)
127 Hours (Fox Searchlight)
The Social Network (Sony Pictures Releasing)
Toy Story 3 (Walt Disney)
True Grit (Paramount)
Winter’s Bone (Roadside Attractions)

BEST ACTOR

Javier Bardem in “Biutiful” (Roadside Attractions)
Jeff Bridges in “True Grit” (Paramount)
Jesse Eisenberg in “The Social Network” (Sony Pictures Releasing)
Colin Firth in “The King’s Speech” (The Weinstein Company)
James Franco in “127 Hours” (Fox Searchlight)

BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR

Christian Bale in “The Fighter” (Paramount)
John Hawkes in “Winter’s Bone” (Roadside Attractions)
Jeremy Renner in “The Town” (Warner Bros.)
Mark Ruffalo in “The Kids Are All Right” (Focus Features)
Geoffrey Rush in “The King’s Speech” (The Weinstein Company)

BEST ACTRESS

Annette Bening in “The Kids Are All Right” (Focus Features)
Nicole Kidman in “Rabbit Hole” (Lionsgate)
Jennifer Lawrence in “Winter’s Bone” (Roadside Attractions)
Natalie Portman in “Black Swan” (Fox Searchlight)
Michelle Williams in “Blue Valentine” (The Weinstein Company)

BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS

Amy Adams in “The Fighter” (Paramount)
Helena Bonham Carter in “The King’s Speech” (The Weinstein Company)
Melissa Leo in “The Fighter” (Paramount)
Hailee Steinfeld in “True Grit” (Paramount)
Jacki Weaver in “Animal Kingdom” (Sony Pictures Classics)

BEST ANIMATED FEATURE

How to Train Your Dragon (Paramount) Chris Sanders and Dean DeBlois
The Illusionist (Sony Pictures Classics) Sylvain Chomet
Toy Story 3 (Walt Disney) Lee Unkrich

ART DIRECTION

Alice in Wonderland (Walt Disney), Robert Stromberg (Production Design), Karen O’Hara (Set Decoration)
Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows Part 1 (Warner Bros.), Stuart Craig (Production Design), Stephenie McMillan (Set Decoration)
Inception (Warner Bros.), Guy Hendrix Dyas (Production Design), Larry Dias and Doug Mowat (Set Decoration)/span>
The King’s Speech (Paramount), Eve Stewart (Production Design), Judy Farr (Set Decoration)
True Grit (Paramount), Jess Gonchor (Production Design), Nancy Haigh (Set Decoration)

BEST CINEMATOGRAPHY

Black Swan (Fox Searchlight) Matthew Libatique
Inception (Warner Bros.) Wally Pfister
The King’s Speech (The Weinstein Company) Danny Cohen
The Social Network (Sony Pictures Releasing) Jeff Cronenweth
True Grit (Paramount) Roger Deakins

COSTUME DESIGN

Alice in Wonderland (Walt Disney) Colleen Atwood
I Am Love (Magnolia Pictures) Antonella Cannarozzi
The King’s Speech (The Weinstein Company) Jenny Beavan
The Tempest (Miramax) Sandy Powell
True Grit (Paramount) Mary Zophres

BEST DIRECTOR

Black Swan (Fox Searchlight), Darren Aronofsky
The Fighter (Paramount), David O. Russell
The King’s Speech (The Weinstein Company), Tom Hooper
The Social Network (Sony Pictures Releasing), David Fincher
True Grit (Paramount), Joel Coen and Ethan Coen

BEST DOCUMENTARY

Exit through the Gift Shop (Producers Distribution Agency)
Gasland, A Gasland Production
Inside Job (Sony Pictures Classics)
Restrepo (National Geographic Entertainment)
Waste Land Lucy Walker and Angus Aynsley (Arthouse Films)

BEST DOCUMENTARY SHORT

Note: completely random guess here

Killing in the Name Nominees to be determined A Moxie Firecracker Films Production
Poster Girl Nominees to be determined A Portrayal Films Production
Strangers No More Karen Goodman and Kirk Simon A Simon & Goodman Picture Company Production
Sun Come Up Jennifer Redfearn and Tim Metzger A Sun Come Up Production
The Warriors of Qiugang Ruby Yang and Thomas Lennon A Thomas Lennon Films Production

BEST EDITING

Black Swan (Fox Searchlight) Andrew Weisblum
The Fighter Paramount Pamela Martin
The King’s Speech (The Weinstein Company) Tariq Anwar
127 Hours (Fox Searchlight) Jon Harris
The Social Network (Sony Pictures Releasing) Angus Wall and Kirk Baxter

BEST FOREIGN FILM

Biutiful, Mexico
Dogtooth, Greece
In a Better World, Denmark
Incendies, Canada
Outside the Law (Hors-la-loi), Algeria

BEST MAKEUP

Barney’s Version (Sony Pictures Classics) Adrien Morot
The Way Back (Newmarket Films in association with Wrekin Hill Entertainment and Image Entertainment) Edouard F. Henriques, Gregory Funk and Yolanda Toussieng
The Wolfman (Universal) Rick Baker and Dave Elsey

BEST ORIGINAL SCORE

How to Train Your Dragon (Paramount) John Powell
Inception (Warner Bros.) Hans Zimmer
The King’s Speech (The Weinstein Company) Alexandre Desplat
127 Hours (Fox Searchlight) A.R. Rahman
The Social Network (Sony Pictures Releasing) Trent Reznor and Atticus Ross

BEST ORIGINAL SONG

“Coming Home” from Country Strong (Sony Pictures Releasing (Screen Gems)) Music and Lyric by Tom Douglas, Troy Verges and Hillary Lindsey
“I See the Light” from Tangled (Walt Disney) Music by Alan Menken Lyric by Glenn Slater
“If I Rise” from 127 Hours (Fox Searchlight) Music by A.R. Rahman Lyric by Dido and Rollo Armstrong
“We Belong Together” from Toy Story 3 (Walt Disney) Music and Lyric by Randy Newman

BEST ANIMATED SHORT FILM
Note: completely random guess here

Day & Night (Walt Disney) A Pixar Animation Studios Production Teddy Newton
The Gruffalo (A Magic Light Pictures Production) Jakob Schuh and Max Lang
Let’s Pollute (A Geefwee Boedoe Production) Geefwee Boedoe
The Lost Thing (Nick Batzias for Madman Entertainment) A Passion Pictures Australia Production Shaun Tan and Andrew Ruhemann
Madagascar, carnet de voyage (Madagascar, a Journey Diary) A Sacrebleu Production Bastien Dubois

BEST LIVE ACTION SHORT FILM
Note: completely random guess here

The Confession (National Film and Television School) A National Film and Television School Production Tanel Toom
The Crush (Network Ireland Television) A Purdy Pictures Production Michael Creagh
God of Love (A Luke Matheny Production) Luke Matheny
Na Wewe (Premium Films) A CUT! Production Ivan Goldschmidt
Wish 143 (A Swing and Shift Films/Union Pictures Production) Ian Barnes and Samantha Waite

BEST SOUND EDITING

Inception (Warner Bros.) Richard King
Toy Story 3 (Walt Disney) Tom Myers and Michael Silvers
Tron: Legacy (Walt Disney) Gwendolyn Yates Whittle and Addison Teague
True Grit (Paramount) Skip Lievsay and Craig Berkey
Unstoppable (20th Century Fox) Mark P. Stoeckinger

BEST SOUND MIXING

Inception (Warner Bros.) Lora Hirschberg, Gary A. Rizzo and Ed Novick
The King’s Speech (The Weinstein Company) Paul Hamblin, Martin Jensen and John Midgley
Salt (Sony Pictures Releasing) Jeffrey J. Haboush, Greg P. Russell, Scott Millan and William Sarokin
The Social Network (Sony Pictures Releasing) Ren Klyce, David Parker, Michael Semanick and Mark Weingarten
True Grit (Paramount) Skip Lievsay, Craig Berkey, Greg Orloff and Peter F. Kurland

BEST VISUAL EFFECTS

Alice in Wonderland (Walt Disney) Ken Ralston, David Schaub, Carey Villegas and Sean Phillips
Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows Part 1 (Warner Bros.) Tim Burke, John Richardson, Christian Manz and Nicolas Aithadi
Hereafter (Warner Bros.) Michael Owens, Bryan Grill, Stephan Trojanski and Joe Farrell
Inception (Warner Bros.) Paul Franklin, Chris Corbould, Andrew Lockley and Peter Bebb
Iron Man 2 (Paramount and Marvel Entertainment, Distributed by Paramount) Janek Sirrs, Ben Snow, Ged Wright and Daniel Sudick

BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY

127 Hours (Fox Searchlight), Screenplay by Danny Boyle & Simon Beaufoy
The Social Network (Sony Pictures Releasing), Screenplay by Aaron Sorkin
Toy Story 3 (Walt Disney), Screenplay by Michael Arndt. Story by John Lasseter, Andrew Stanton and Lee Unkrich
True Grit (Paramount), Written for the screen by Joel Coen & Ethan Coen
Winter’s Bone (Roadside Attractions), Adapted for the screen by Debra Granik & Anne Rosellini

BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY

Another Year (Sony Pictures Classics), Written by Mike Leigh
The Fighter (Paramount), Screenplay by Scott Silver and Paul Tamasy & Eric Johnson. Story by Keith Dorrington & Paul Tamasy & Eric Johnson
Inception (Warner Bros.), Written by Christopher Nolan
The Kids Are All Right (Focus Features), Written by Lisa Cholodenko & Stuart Blumberg
The King’s Speech (The Weinstein Company), Screenplay by David Seidler


Conclusion: I have The King's Speech winning at least 7 Oscars including for Best Picture, Actor, Supporting Actor, Original Screenplay, and Director. Why? Because rarely does a film get 12 nominations, wins best picture, and doesn't win at least 4 more awards. Plus, Tom Hooper won the DGA award earlier this month. Personally, I think Hooper winning Best Director would be a travesty considering the other four directors nominated are immensely talented and made great films. But whatever, it's the ****ing Oscars.

The Social Network should win Best Sound Mixing just for that scene in the club where Sean Parker and Mark are talking inside that insanely loud club. How they pulled that off really impressed me.

My personal opinion? I'd be happy with The Fighter, Social Network, Black Swan, or even True Grit winning best picture. I think The King's Speech was a good film, but I also think Boyle, Aronofsky, Fincher, O. Russell, and the Coen Bros all made great films that maintain a strong directorial vision. It's unfortunate that newcomer Tom Hooper will win an Oscar before Fincher or Aronofsky. His film just really isn't all that impressive from a visual or technical standpoint. However, Colin Firth absolutely deserves to win Best Actor, I've always liked him, and I will be happy to see him accept his award.


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