Oscar Predictions

I don't know if you can rely on me just yet, I can't even rely on me. But here's how I think the Oscars are going to go... RIGHT NOW. I won't do all the predictions yet, just the main ones. Here they are:

Let's start off with writing:

Writing (Adapted Screenplay)

* “District 9” Written by Neill Blomkamp and Terri Tatchell
* “An Education” Screenplay by Nick Hornby
* “In the Loop” Screenplay by Jesse Armstrong, Simon Blackwell, Armando Iannucci, Tony Roche
* “Precious: Based on the Novel ‘Push’ by Sapphire” Screenplay by Geoffrey Fletcher
* “Up in the Air” Screenplay by Jason Reitman and Sheldon Turner

This is has turned into a very interesting category with District 9 and In the Loop being nominated. "Up in the Air" has been winning all the awards so far so that's what I pick. This will probably be UITA's consolation prize since it's not winning any other awards, I'm positive.

Writing (Original Screenplay)

* “The Hurt Locker” Written by Mark Boal
* “Inglourious Basterds” Written by Quentin Tarantino
* “The Messenger” Written by Alessandro Camon & Oren Moverman
* “A Serious Man” Written by Joel Coen & Ethan Coen
* “Up” Screenplay by Bob Peterson, Pete Docter, Story by Pete Docter, Bob Peterson, Tom McCarthy

So one of two things will happen here... "Inglourious Basterds" will win Best Original Screenplay because... well... it is. There's no doubt about that. OR, "The Hurt Locker" will win it because the Academy is awarding it with Best Picture and Best Director. Hurt Locker doesn't have to win Best Screenplay, of course, in order to win Best Picture, but I feel like THL might go the "Departed" route. That is, winning the bare essential awards: Director, Editing, Writing, and Picture. That's what I think will happen so far.

Acting awards:

Actor in a Supporting Role

* Matt Damon in “Invictus”
* Woody Harrelson in “The Messenger”
* Christopher Plummer in “The Last Station”
* Stanley Tucci in “The Lovely Bones”
* Christoph Waltz in “Inglourious Basterds”

He's going to win. There's no doubt about it.

Actress in a Supporting Role

* Penélope Cruz in “Nine”
* Vera Farmiga in “Up in the Air”
* Maggie Gyllenhaal in “Crazy Heart”
* Anna Kendrick in “Up in the Air”
* Mo’Nique in “Precious: Based on the Novel ‘Push’ by Sapphire”

Another painfully obvious one.

Actress in a Leading Role

* Sandra Bullock in “The Blind Side”
* Helen Mirren in “The Last Station”
* Carey Mulligan in “An Education”
* Gabourey Sidibe in “Precious: Based on the Novel ‘Push’ by Sapphire”
* Meryl Streep in “Julie & Julia”

For SOME reason, it's Sandra Bullock's year. Why? Because she managed to be the lead actress in a highly successful movie. Carey Mulligan, Gabby Sidibe, and Meryl Streep gave amazing, much better performances, but this will probably be the only chance for Bullock to win an Oscar. And... for some reason... the Academy likes to give consolation prizes... perhaps I'm being too harsh? Whatever.

Actor in a Leading Role

* Jeff Bridges in “Crazy Heart”
* George Clooney in “Up in the Air”
* Colin Firth in “A Single Man”
* Morgan Freeman in “Invictus”
* Jeremy Renner in “The Hurt Locker”

All the acting awards seem pretty cut and dry. Clooney has definitely lost his spark as Up in the Air stopped getting talked about, even though it's probably the best performance he's done. Firth apparently gave a great performance in "A Single Man" and it's a shame he's getting overshadowed by Jeff Bridges. And Jeff Bridges apparently gives a solid performance... he deserves the Oscar after such a wonderful career. Whether he deserves for Crazy Heart remains to be seen since I haven't seen it yet.

Directing

* “Avatar” James Cameron
* “The Hurt Locker” Kathryn Bigelow
* “Inglourious Basterds” Quentin Tarantino
* “Precious: Based on the Novel ‘Push’ by Sapphire” Lee Daniels
* “Up in the Air” Jason Reitman

The Academy would be foolish not to give Bigelow the award here. "The Hurt Locker" is aesthetically her movie and THL is the most tightly directed, wonderfully crafted film of the year. First female winning an Oscar for Best Director? That should be a great moment. Even Cameron knows that if he wins this, he won't be forgiven... even though it's not his fault!

Best Picture

* “Avatar” James Cameron and Jon Landau, Producers
* “The Blind Side” Nominees to be determined
* “District 9” Peter Jackson and Carolynne Cunningham, Producers
* “An Education” Finola Dwyer and Amanda Posey, Producers
* “The Hurt Locker” Nominees to be determined
* “Inglourious Basterds” Lawrence Bender, Producer
* “Precious: Based on the Novel ‘Push’ by Sapphire” Lee Daniels, Sarah Siegel-Magness and Gary Magness, Producers
* “A Serious Man” Joel Coen and Ethan Coen, Producers
* “Up” Jonas Rivera, Producer
* “Up in the Air” Daniel Dubiecki, Ivan Reitman and Jason Reitman, Producers

Avatar may be winning the technical awards on Oscar night, but it has no writing nomination, no acting nominations, it lost the PGA, the DGA, ignored by the SAGs... if it loses in the Best Director category then I don't see how it has a shot. How can you be the best picture of the year if it doesn't have the best directing, best writing, and/or best acting of the year? If it wins Best Editing and Cinematography it may have a shot, but I really think the presence of "District 9" hurts its status here. If there were just five nominations, it might be different. But I think the five additional nominees changes things considerably.