Monday, February 6, 2012

Oscar Predictions

Best Picture

  • “The Artist” Thomas Langmann, Producer
  • “The Descendants” Jim Burke, Alexander Payne and Jim Taylor, Producers
  • “Extremely Loud & Incredibly Close” Scott Rudin, Producer
  • “The Help” Brunson Green, Chris Columbus and Michael Barnathan, Producers
  • “Hugo” Graham King and Martin Scorsese, Producers
  • “Midnight in Paris” Letty Aronson and Stephen Tenenbaum, Producers
  • “Moneyball” Michael De Luca, Rachael Horovitz and Brad Pitt, Producers
  • “The Tree of Life” Nominees to be determined
  • “War HorseSteven Spielberg and Kathleen Kennedy, Producers

Best Picture: The Artist - I'm picking The Artist because all signs point to The Artist for the win. I can't say I'm too comfortable with that pick, but it's for my own personal reasons. I think it's just a weird year and that The Artist is just too slight, way too slight. Of course it makes great use of the silent film gimmick, it's very well-made, but... I don't know, man. Best picture winner? Really? Oh well, better get used to the idea because I'm 95% sure it's happening.


  • “The Artist” Michel Hazanavicius
  • “The Descendants” Alexander Payne
  • “Hugo” Martin Scorsese
  • “Midnight in Paris” Woody Allen
  • “The Tree of Life” Terrence Malick

Best Director: Michel Hazanavicius. There's a lot of great directors on this list, the one with the least experience is the front-runner. Michel Hazanavicius has made the film that's gotten the most awards attention. They had no problems giving this award to Tom Hooper last year. It's crazy to think Hazanavicius will beat out Scorsese and Malick and Woody Allen, but when you're hot, you're hot. I'm 75% sure Hazanavicius will win.

Actor in a Leading Role

  • Demián Bichir in “A Better Life”
  • George Clooney in “The Descendants”
  • Jean Dujardin in “The Artist”
  • Gary Oldman in “Tinker Tailor Soldier Spy”
  • Brad Pitt in “Moneyball”

Best Actor: George Clooney. Both Clooney and Pitt gave career-best performances in 2011, but Clooney has been getting the most attention for his performance. I could see voters feeling torn between the two and Jean Dujardin winding up on top, but ultimately, I'm 80% sure Clooney wins.

Actress in a Leading Role

  • Glenn Close in “Albert Nobbs”
  • Viola Davis in “The Help”
  • Rooney Mara in “The Girl with the Dragon Tattoo”
  • Meryl Streep in “The Iron Lady”
  • Michelle Williams in “My Week with Marilyn”

Best Actress: Viola Davis - I'm only about 52% sure on this one. I think it's either between her or Meryl Streep but I think Davis has the edge right now. Streep gets nominated like every year but always seems to lose out to someone else (Streep does have two Oscars, last one came in 1982). Viola Davis seems like the one she most likely would lose too. Even though everyone seemed to think Streep knocked it out of the park with Margaret Thatcher, Viola Davis has been getting just as much attention. If Viola were to win, she'd be only the second black actress to win the Best Actress award.

Actor in a Supporting Role

  • Kenneth Branagh in “My Week with Marilyn”
  • Jonah Hill in “Moneyball”
  • Nick Nolte in “Warrior”
  • Christopher Plummer in “Beginners”
  • Max von Sydow in “Extremely Loud & Incredibly Close”

Best Supporting Actor: Christopher Plummer. Christopher Plummer has got this one in the bag. I love Max von Sydow and he's just as deserving, but Plummer simply had the better role and performance. 100% sure on this one.

Actress in a Supporting Role

  • Bérénice Bejo in “The Artist”
  • Jessica Chastain in “The Help”
  • Melissa McCarthy in “Bridesmaids”
  • Janet McTeer in “Albert Nobbs”
  • Octavia Spencer in “The Help”

Best Supporting Actress: Octavia Spencer. Melissa McCarthy is the dark horse here, but it's been Octavia that's been getting all the attention. I'd give Octavia 60% of a chance, McCarthy has a 30% chance, and then 10% between Chastain and Bejo.

Animated Feature Film

  • “A Cat in Paris” Alain Gagnol and Jean-Loup Felicioli
  • “Chico & Rita” Fernando Trueba and Javier Mariscal
  • “Kung Fu Panda 2″ Jennifer Yuh Nelson
  • “Puss in Boots” Chris Miller
  • “Rango” Gore Verbinski

Best Animated Film: Rango. Considering they snubbed Tintin, Rango looks to be the most likely chance here. 90% confident it will be Rango.

Art Direction

  • “The Artist”
    Production Design: Laurence Bennett; Set Decoration: Robert Gould
  • Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows Part 2
    Production Design: Stuart Craig; Set Decoration: Stephenie McMillan
  • “Hugo”
    Production Design: Dante Ferretti; Set Decoration: Francesca Lo Schiavo
  • “Midnight in Paris”
    Production Design: Anne Seibel; Set Decoration: Hélène Dubreuil
  • “War Horse”
    Production Design: Rick Carter; Set Decoration: Lee Sandales

Hugo deserves it the most, it looks gorgeous. But The Artist also does a great job of looking authentic. I'm giving Hugo the edge here though, I think Hugo will pick up a lot of technical awards.


  • “The Artist” Guillaume Schiffman
  • “The Girl with the Dragon Tattoo” Jeff Cronenweth
  • “Hugo” Robert Richardson
  • “The Tree of Life” Emmanuel Lubezki
  • “War Horse” Janusz Kaminski

I think Hugo gets this one too.

Costume Design

  • “Anonymous” Lisy Christl
  • “The Artist” Mark Bridges
  • “Hugo” Sandy Powell
  • “Jane Eyre” Michael O’Connor
  • “W.E.” Arianne Phillips

They generally like to go with period piece/costume drama. I'm giving the edge to Jane Eyre here, but I could also see it going to The Artist.

Documentary (Feature)

  • “Hell and Back Again”
    Danfung Dennis and Mike Lerner
  • “If a Tree Falls: A Story of the Earth Liberation Front”
    Marshall Curry and Sam Cullman
  • “Paradise Lost 3: Purgatory”
    Charles Ferguson and Audrey Marrs
  • “Pina”
    Wim Wenders and Gian-Piero Ringel
  • “Undefeated”
    TJ Martin, Dan Lindsay and Richard Middlemas

I haven't really been paying attention to documentaries. I only recognize Pina, but it'll probably go to... um... damn, I really don't know what to pick. Ok, If a Tree Falls. That's who is winning.

Documentary (Short Subject)

  • “The Barber of Birmingham: Foot Soldier of the Civil Rights Movement”
    Robin Fryday and Gail Dolgin
  • “God Is the Bigger Elvis”
    Rebecca Cammisa and Julie Anderson
  • “Incident in New Baghdad”
    James Spione
  • “Saving Face”
    Daniel Junge and Sharmeen Obaid-Chinoy
  • “The Tsunami and the Cherry Blossom”
    Lucy Walker and Kira Carstensen

The Tsnuami and the Cherry Blossom... I guess

Film Editing

  • “The Artist” Anne-Sophie Bion and Michel Hazanavicius
  • “The Descendants” Kevin Tent
  • “The Girl with the Dragon Tattoo” Kirk Baxter and Angus Wall
  • “Hugo” Thelma Schoonmaker
  • “Moneyball” Christopher Tellefsen

Again, I really see Hugo winning a lot of technical awards, but if The Artist is indeed the frontrunner for Best Picture and Director, it'll have to win a few technical awards. I'm giving this one to The Artist, but I wouldn't be surprised if Hugo won. 51% sure about The Artist, 49% sure about Hugo.

Foreign Language Film

  • “Bullhead” Belgium
  • “Footnote” Israel
  • “In Darkness” Poland
  • “Monsieur Lazhar” Canada
  • “A Separation” Iran

A Separation looks like the obvious choice, but the foreign language voters have surprised before.


  • “Albert Nobbs”
    Martial Corneville, Lynn Johnston and Matthew W. Mungle
  • “Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows Part 2″
    Edouard F. Henriques, Gregory Funk and Yolanda Toussieng
  • “The Iron Lady”
    Mark Coulier and J. Roy Helland

Tough one. Meryl Streep really looked convincing as Thatcher, but Harry Potter could also get the award.

Music (Original Score)

  • “The Adventures of Tintin” John Williams
  • “The Artist” Ludovic Bource
  • “Hugo” Howard Shore
  • “Tinker Tailor Soldier Spy” Alberto Iglesias
  • “War Horse” John Williams

This one has to go to The Artist. The Artist largely worked because of its score.

Music (Original Song)

  • “Man or Muppet” from “The Muppets” Music and Lyric by Bret McKenzie
  • “Real in Rio” from “Rio” Music by Sergio Mendes and Carlinhos Brown Lyric by Siedah Garrett

Man or Muppet all the way. It's embarrassing that there's only two nominations in this category.

Short Film (Animated)

  • “Dimanche/Sunday” Patrick Doyon
  • “The Fantastic Flying Books of Mr. Morris Lessmore” William Joyce and Brandon Oldenburg
  • “La Luna” Enrico Casarosa
  • “A Morning Stroll” Grant Orchard and Sue Goffe
  • “Wild Life” Amanda Forbis and Wendy Tilby

Um... Dimanche/Sunday.

Short Film (Live Action)

  • “Pentecost” Peter McDonald and Eimear O’Kane
  • “Raju” Max Zähle and Stefan Gieren
  • “The Shore” Terry George and Oorlagh George
  • “Time Freak” Andrew Bowler and Gigi Causey
  • “Tuba Atlantic” Hallvar Witzø

Um... Raju?

Sound Editing

  • “Drive” Lon Bender and Victor Ray Ennis
  • “The Girl with the Dragon Tattoo” Ren Klyce
  • “Hugo” Philip Stockton and Eugene Gearty
  • “Transformers: Dark of the Moon” Ethan Van der Ryn and Erik Aadahl
  • “War Horse” Richard Hymns and Gary Rydstrom

I would like Drive to win here, I think it deserves it the most. I could also see Dragon Tattoo grabbing this award. But I said Hugo would win a lot of technical awards and I meant it. Hugo gets sound editing.

Sound Mixing

  • “The Girl with the Dragon Tattoo”
    David Parker, Michael Semanick, Ren Klyce and Bo Persson
  • “Hugo”
    Tom Fleischman and John Midgley
  • “Moneyball”
    Deb Adair, Ron Bochar, Dave Giammarco and Ed Novick
  • “Transformers: Dark of the Moon”
    Greg P. Russell, Gary Summers, Jeffrey J. Haboush and Peter J. Devlin
  • “War Horse”
    Gary Rydstrom, Andy Nelson, Tom Johnson and Stuart Wilson

I don't think, however, that Hugo will win both sound awards. I think this goes to Dragon Tattoo.

Visual Effects

  • “Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows Part 2″
    Tim Burke, David Vickery, Greg Butler and John Richardson
  • “Hugo”
    Rob Legato, Joss Williams, Ben Grossman and Alex Henning
  • “Real Steel”
    Erik Nash, John Rosengrant, Dan Taylor and Swen Gillberg
  • “Rise of the Planet of the Apes”
    Joe Letteri, Dan Lemmon, R. Christopher White and Daniel Barrett
  • “Transformers: Dark of the Moon”
    Scott Farrar, Scott Benza, Matthew Butler and John Frazier

This has to go to Rise of the Planet of the Apes.

Writing (Adapted Screenplay)

  • “The Descendants” Screenplay by Alexander Payne and Nat Faxon & Jim Rash
  • “Hugo” Screenplay by John Logan
  • “The Ides of March” Screenplay by George Clooney & Grant Heslov and Beau Willimon
  • “Moneyball” Screenplay by Steven Zaillian and Aaron Sorkin Story by Stan Chervin
  • “Tinker Tailor Soldier Spy” Screenplay by Bridget O’Connor & Peter Straughan

I think The Descendants gets this one. If it weren't for The Artist, I think The Descendants would be getting the most awards. Only thing is that Payne has already won a screenplay Oscar before, but it's been enough years since then that I think he'll get the win again. Moneyball could also win, but Sorkin would just last year. I'm sticking with The Descendants.

Writing (Original Screenplay)

  • “The Artist” Written by Michel Hazanavicius
  • “Bridesmaids” Written by Annie Mumolo & Kristen Wiig
  • “Margin Call” Written by J.C. Chandor
  • “Midnight in Paris” Written by Woody Allen
  • “A Separation” Written by Asghar Farhadir

The Artist might win this, but I also think Midnight in Paris could win this one. Even though Woody doesn't care about the Oscars, the Oscars love to reward him when they can. I say it's a 50/50 between The Artist or Midnight in Paris, I'll give the edge to The Artist, though.

So, I have a pretty good spread of awards going to some key films:

5 Oscars to The Artist

3 Oscars to Hugo

2 Oscars to The Descendants

2 Oscars to The Help

And 1 to a bunch of others.

To sum up my feelings in one word: meh

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