So here is how it will go down:
Best Picture (starting this year, 10 nominees): Avatar, The Blind Side, District 9, An Education, The Hurt Locker, Inglourious Basterds, Precious: Based on the Novel Push by Sapphire, A Serious Man, Up, Up in the Air.
winner: The Hurt Locker
It won the DGA, PGA, and the WGA. That's the writer's guild, producer's guild, and director's guild. C'mon! It's gotta win, right? Avatar simply didn't win any of the big pre-Oscar awards and seemed to have completely lost momentum after the Golden Globes. It was groundbreaking for many reasons, but the Academy simply might feel that the Hurt Locker is the better movie. Honestly, I can't blame them for feeling that way.
Actor: Jeff Bridges, Crazy Heart; George Clooney, Up in the Air; Colin Firth, A Single Man; Morgan Freeman, Invictus; Jeremy Renner, The Hurt Locker.
winner: Jeff Bridges, Crazy Heart
There was never a doubt about this all year long. He's got this one in the bag for sure. MAYBE Renner could surprise everyone if the Academy loves the Hurt Locker that much but Clooney, Firth, and Freeman are all dead in the water despite their fine performances.
Actress: Sandra Bullock, The Blind Side; Helen Mirren, The Last Station; Carey Mulligan, An Education; Gabourey Sidibe, Precious: Based on the Novel Push by Sapphire; Meryl Streep, "ulie & Julia.
winner: Sandra Bullock, The Blind Side
It was once though that Meryl Streep and Sandra Bullock were fighting for this award, but the momentum seems to be on Bullock's side at this point. Streep hasn't won an academy award in 28 years and she's been nominated 16 times! I don't know what else she has to do to win another one and Bullock's performance wasn't better than Streep's... but Bullock is that popular bankable actress who is simply getting lucky. The Academy will want to see her win.
Supporting Actor: Matt Damon, Invictus; Woody Harrelson, The Messenger; Christopher Plummer, The Last Station; Stanley Tucci, The Lovely Bones; Christoph Waltz, Inglourious Basterds.
winner: Christoph Waltz, Inglourious Basterds
Let's face it, we all knew he was winning this since Basterds came out. He carries Inglourious Basterds like a seasoned pro. He's won pretty much every other award imaginable. He's gonna get the Oscar for sure.
Supporting Actress: Penelope Cruz, Nine; Vera Farmiga, Up in the Air; Maggie Gyllenhaal, Crazy Heart; Anna Kendrick, Up in the Air; Mo'Nique, Precious: Based on the Novel Push by Sapphire.
winner: Mo'Nique, Precious: Based on the Novel Push by Sapphire
This is even more of a shoe-in than Supporting Actor.
Directing: James Cameron, Avatar; Kathryn Bigelow, The Hurt Locker; Quentin Tarantino, Inglourious Basterds; Lee Daniels, Precious: Based on the Novel Push by Sapphire; Jason Reitman, Up in the Air.
winner: Kathryn Bigelow, The Hurt Locker
It's finally time for a woman to win Best Director and it won't be because she's a woman. Bigelow made The Hurt Locker so brilliantly that she deserves to win. Cameron put his heart and soul into Avatar, but nobody cares about his heart and some feel like he doesn't have a soul. Reitman is simply too young to get this kind of recognition and Tarantino just got unlucky, but I think he'll have other shots down the road.
Foreign Language Film: Ajami, Israel; El Secreto de Sus Ojos, Argentina; The Milk of Sorrow, Peru; Un Prophete, France; The White Ribbon, Germany.
winner: The White Ribbon, Germany
I haven't seen any of these but I now that A Prophet and the White Ribbon have been praised all across the board. It'll either be between those two and I think Haneke is an established enough filmmaker that the Academy will want to give him this award. But Ribbon doesn't win, A Prophet will. And it's another film, it's because Prophet and Ribbon split the vote... err something. I swear!
Adapted Screenplay: Neill Blomkamp and Terri Tatchell, District 9; Nick Hornby, An Education; Jesse Armstrong, Simon Blackwell, Armando Iannucci, Tony Roche, "In the Loop"; Geoffrey Fletcher, "Precious: Based on the Novel 'Push' by Sapphire; Jason Reitman and Sheldon Turner, Up in the Air.
winner: Jason Reitman and Sheldon Turner, Up in the Air
Up in the Air unfortunately lost momentum shortly after its release even though there was major buzz about it and Clooney at the Telluride Film Festival. This will be the consolation prize.
Original Screenplay: Mark Boal, The Hurt Locker; Quentin Tarantino, Inglourious Basterds; Alessandro Camon and Oren Moverman, The Messenger; Joel Coen and Ethan Coen, A Serious Man; Bob Peterson, Pete Docter, Tom McCarthy, Up.
winner: Quentin Tarantino, Inglourious Basterds
It's either Tarantino or Mark Boal and I think they'll really want to award Tarantino with something why not for his excellent script?
Animated Feature Film: Coraline; Fantastic Mr. Fox; The Princess and the Frog; The Secret of Kells; Up.
winner: Up
A Pixar film that everybody loves, I'll be shocked if it doesn't win.
Art Direction: Avatar, The Imaginarium of Doctor Parnassus Nine, Sherlock Holmes, The Young Victoria.
winner: Avatar
explained below
Cinematography: Avatar, Harry Potter and the Half-Blood Prince, The Hurt Locker, Inglourious Basterds, The White Ribbon.
winner: Avatar
explained below
Sound Mixing: Avatar, The Hurt Locker, Inglourious Basterds, Star Trek, Transformers: Revenge of the Fallen.
winner: The Hurt Locker
Part of what makes THL so great is its use of its sound effects. I think, out of all the tech categories, THL can beat Avatar here and in Editing.
Sound Editing: Avatar, The Hurt Locker, Inglourious Basterds, Star Trek, Up.
winner: Avatar
explained below
Original Score: Avatar, James Horner; Fantastic Mr. Fox, Alexandre Desplat; The Hurt Locker, Marco Beltrami and Buck Sanders; Sherlock Holmes, Hans Zimmer; Up, Michael Giacchino.
winner: Up
Up has a very brilliant, memorable score. It's Up's to lose.
Original Song: Almost There from The Princess and the Frog, Randy Newman; Down in New Orleans from The Princess and the Frog, Randy Newman; Loin de Paname from Paris 36, Reinhardt Wagner and Frank Thomas; Take It All from Nine, Maury Yeston; The Weary Kind (Theme from Crazy Heart) from Crazy Heart, Ryan Bingham and T Bone Burnett.
winner: The Weary Kind (Theme from Crazy Heart) from Crazy Heart, Ryan Bingham and T Bone Burnett.
It's been winning every other award, so why not?
Costume: Bright Star, Coco Before Chanel, The Imaginarium of Doctor Parnassus, Nine, The Young Victoria.
winner: The Young Victoria
My sources tell me TYV has this in the bag and it won the necessary precursor awards... and it's a costume drama.
Documentary Feature: Burma VJ, The Cove, Food, Inc. The Most Dangerous Man in America: Daniel Ellsberg and the Pentagon Papers, Which Way Home.
winner: The Cove
Documentary (short subject): China's Unnatural Disaster: The Tears of Sichuan Province, The Last Campaign of Governor Booth Gardner, The Last Truck: Closing of a GM Plant, Music by Prudence, Rabbit a la Berlin.
winner: The Last Truck: Closing of a GM Plant
Film Editing: Avatar, District 9, The Hurt Locker, Inglourious Basterds, Precious: Based on the Novel Push by Sapphire.
winner: The Hurt Locker
Watch, you'll see. THL wins this award, it's definitely winning Best Picture. And since I feel it will win best picture and another strong point for THL is its editing... it makes sense.
Makeup: Il Divo, Star Trek, The Young Victoria.
winner: Star Trek
Animated Short Film: French Roast, Granny O'Grimm's Sleeping Beauty, The Lady and the Reaper (La Dama y la Muerte), Logorama, A Matter of Loaf and Death.
winner: A Matter of Loaf and Death
Live Action Short Film: The Door, Instead of Abracadabra, Kavi, Miracle Fish, The New Tenants.
winner: The Door
Visual Effects: Avatar, District 9, Star Trek.
winner: Avatar
Avatar should win some of these tech awards easily, especially ones where THL isn't in the same category. This is an easy one too.
I guess these predictions weren't so hard after all... but that's JUST the wrong sentiment to have. With the Oscars, if you think you're 100% right on something, you're bound to be wrong. Like when Lives of Others beat Pan's Labyrinth or Crash beating Brokeback Mountain or Adrien Brody winning best actor... this shit does happen. And it could happen tomorrow... it'll be completely baffling and you'll think "dammit, why did I think so-and-so was gonna win"... and that's part of why I love following the Oscars. You think you know how it's gonna play out and you mess up somewhere. Although I must say I've gotten best picture right the last three times. Either those were really easy to pick or I'm on a bit of a streak. Let's see if I get The Hurt Locker right... cause honestly, my confidence in THL scares me.
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