While the Golden Globes will be a nice early indicator for the Oscars... that'll be it. Gervais should be entertaining, but other than that... meh.
So let's just skip to the Oscars.
I'll do three things: post what I think will be nominated, guess who I want to win, then who I THINK will win... sometimes those choices might differ, sometimes not.
So here we go.
Best Picture:
An Education
Avatar
District 9
The Hurt Locker
Inglourious Basterds
Invictus
Precious
Star Trek
Up
Up in the Air
Will win: The Hurt Locker
Should win: Inglourious Basterds
Is Inglourious Basterds my favorite movie of the year? Yes. But I won't mind if it loses to The Hurt Locker, which is my second favorite. Even if they both lose to Up in the Air, I'll still be happy. I just don't want Avatar or Precious to win. I liked Avatar, but let's face it... it's just one huge CGI-fest. Sure, it dramatically advanced CGi technology and should win awards for that. But, best MOVIE of the year? No thanks.
Best Actor:
Jeff Bridges, Crazy Heart
George Clooney, Up in the Air
Colin Firth, A Single Man
Morgan Freeman, Invictus
Jeremy Renner, The Hurt Locker
Will win: Jeff Bridges
Should win: Jeff Bridges
I haven't seen Crazy Heart. So I probably aren't qualified to speak for the movie. This is under the condition that Jeff Bridges did, in fact, give a great performance. Under that assumption, then yes, he deserves to win after such a great career. If not him, then Firth or Clooney will win it.
Best Actress
Sandra Bullock, The Blind Side
Helen Mirren, The Last Station
Carey Mulligan, An Education
Gabby Sidibe, Precious
Meryl Streep, Julie & Julia
Will win: Meryl Streep
Should win: Gabby Sidibe
People want Streep to win because she hasn't won it since the '80s. It'd be her third Oscar victory. But Sidibe gave a powerful performance and I can't imagine anyone beating that. But if it really is Streep's year, then no one will stop her.
Best Supporting Actor
Matt Damon, Invictus
Woody Harrelson, The Messenger
Christian McKay, Me and Orson Welles
Stanley Tucci, The Lovely Bones
Christoph Waltz, Inglourious Basterds
Will win: Waltz
Should win: Waltz
Waltz's performance is absolutely brilliant, if Basterds wins nothing else, let it be this.
Best Supporting Actress
Penelope Cruz, Nine
Vera Farmiga, Up in the Air
Anna Kendrick, Up in the Air
Mo'Nique, Precious
Julianne Moore, A Single Man
Will win: Mo'Nique
Should win: Mo'Nique
She will win it, she deserves it, remember when she was on Girlfriends on the WB? Now she could win an Oscar, that's insane.
Best Director
Kathryn Bigelow, Hurt Locker
James Cameron, Avatar
Clint Eastwood, Invictus
Jason Reitman, Up in the Air
Quentin Tarantino, Inglourious Basterds
Will win: Bigelow
Should win: Bigelow
Shot for shot, Hurt Locker is brilliant. Then again, so is UITA and Basterds. This is the strongest category out of them all so if it had to go to anybody, it best be Bigelow. First woman winning an Oscar would be historic and she really deserves it.
Best Original Screenplay
Mark Boal, The Hurt Locker
James Cameron, Avatar
Coen Bros, A Serious Man
Scott Neustadter, Michael H. Weber, 500 Days of Summer
Quentin Tarantino, Inglourious Basterds
Will win: Boal
Should win: Tarantino
This will probably go to Boal because the Hurt Locker is going to win a lot of major awards, especially best picture. But it should go to Inglourious Basterds just for how wonderfully original it is, considering it's a WWII film.
Best Adapted Screenplay
Jason Reitman, Sheldon Turner, Up in the Air
Geoffrey Fletcher, Precious
Roberto Orci & Alex Kurtzman; Star Trek
Neill Blomkamp, Terri Tatchell, District 9
Nick Hornby, An Education
Will win: Reitman
Should win: Reitman
This is one of the best adapted screenplays in a long time. Reitman turned the book "Up in the Air" completely into its own movie. It's his movie. The dialogue is sharp and witty and the story is brilliant. At the end, it leaves you with a lot to think about. If UITA wins anything, it's gotta be this.
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