Best Director

The Oscars aren't until February, but it's never too early to start thinking about them, especially since this is a movie blog. My wonder is about the Best Director category this year. Maybe it's just me, but it seems as if this could be a rather weak year for the category. What do we have so far?

Martin Scorsese has been nominated for Best Director for every movie he's made since Gangs of New York. Could he be nominated again?

Christopher Nolan has never been nominated for Best Director but Inception is such a wholly original and captivating film, can he really be ignored for another year?

Those two seem like the only two likely nominees so far. What about the rest of the year?

Well, you still have some major players this year: Clint Eastwood with Hereafter, David Fincher with The Social Network, Coen Brothers for True Grit, James L. Brooks for Everything You've Got

Then you have some wild card contenders: David O. Russell for The Fighter, Anton Corbijn for The American, Sofia Coppola for Somewhere

What about the films that don't have a solid release date, yet, for this year? Guys like Darren Aronofsky for Black Swan, Terrence Malick for Tree of Life, Peter Weir for The Way Back, or even Alexander Payne for The Descendants (if Fox Searchlight's December 10th release date is true).

Other possibilites: Mike Leigh for Another Year, Alejandro Inarritu for Biutiful, Derek Cianfrance for Blue Valentine, Lisa Cholodenko for The Kids Are Alright

So when you break it down like that, there are actually some interesting possibilities. Now let's look at some stats.

Martin Scorsese - nominated six times, won once
Christopher Nolan - never nominated

Clint Eastwood - nominated four times, won twice
David Fincher - nominated once
Coen Brothers - nominated twice, won once
James L. Brooks - nominated once, won once

David O. Russell - never nominated
Anton Corbijn - never nominated
Sofia Coppola - nominated once

Darren Aronofsky - never nominated
Terrence Malick - nominated once
Peter Weir - nominated four times
Alexander Payne - nominated once

Mike Leigh - nominated twice
Alejandro Inarritu - nominated once
Derek Cianfrance - never nominated
Lisa Cholodenko - never nominated

So who's long overdue to win Best Director? Well, obviously, Terrence Malick. I'd think if The Tree of Life turns out as good as it promises, Malick should win it without question. Of course, you have to factor in his reclusive-ness. Someone else would be accepting the award for him as he hates appearing in public. Is his film so good that the Academy will ignore that?

Peter Weir and Mike Leigh are also overdue. Both have been nominated multiple times, both have established themselves as great filmmakers, but I think unless a Mike Leigh film looks like a bona fide Best Picture winner, then he has no chance. Peter Weir, on the other hand, has been more of a Hollywood team player over the years so if his film The Way Back turns out great, he could very well be on stage to accept that award.

It's about time for Christopher Nolan, David O. Russell, and Darren Aronofsky to finally be nominated for Best Director. They all have a long way to go in their directorial careers, but it's time for them to officially get recognition from the academy. I don't think any of the three will win, but Christopher Nolan probably has the best chance out of them. Overall, I don't see all three of them being nominated, but The Fighter looks to be a more Oscar friendly film than Black Swan so I wouldn't be surprised if Russell finally gets a nod this year along with Nolan.

Those who are kind of stuck in limbo are David Fincher, Alexander Payne, Sofia Coppola, and Inarritu. The four of them have gotten recognition before and unless one of their films are so far ahead of the rest of the competition, I don't think the Academy will feel the need to give any of them the Best Director Oscar. Especially since Coppola and Payne have won Oscars before in other categories.

So how about the rest? Well, I doubt Martin Scorsese will be able to win again and it's tough to say that his movie will still be in the running once December comes around. It'd be tough to deny Scorsese, but he's won it before and critics didn't go crazy over Shutter Island, who knows what the Academy thinks? Clint Eastwood's Hereafter looks like a much more interesting film than Invictus was so if that turns out to be a good film, then he'll easily get nominated... he just won't win again. Then you have James L. Brooks. I'm not even sure Everything You've Got will be anything more than an above average romantic comedy, but you can never count him out. Never. If the movie turns out to be great, then he'll easily get nominated too. The Coen Brothers could also very well be nominated, True Grit looks like it could be a great film and they got that prime December 25th release date. If it's good enough, they could be nominated easily.

As far as Corbijn, Cianfrance, and Cholodenko are concerned, Cianfrance's Blue Valentine comes out at the end of the year and it's gotten rave reviews coming out of Sundance and Cannes. The reviews have been so positive that it might not be too far fetched for him to wind up being nominated for Best Director. But then again, that one is a bit tougher to figure out because it doesn't come out for another five months and the film would have to be too big to ignore for Cianfrance to be nominated. Then again, Lee Daniels was nominated last year... Lisa Cholodenko also has a decent shot at a nomination as The Kids Are Alright has gotten rave reviews here. But it's July and unless the film winds up gaining more ground in the box office throughout the year, then she might get screwed over. I don't like Anton Cobijn's chances that much as he's a new director and his film comes out on September 1st. Then again, if the praise for the film is similar to Michael Clayton, then he might have a good chance. The Academy loves George Clooney so that helps him as well.

Overall, who do I think the five nominees will be? Two categories:

If The Tree of Life comes out then I think the nominees will be like this:

Clint Eastwood - Hereafter
Coen Brothers - True Grit
Terrence Malick - The Tree of Life
Christopher Nolan - Inception
David O. Russell - The Fighter

If Tree of Life doesn't come out this year...

Clint Eastwood - Hereafter
Coen Brothers - True Grit
David Fincher - The Social Network
Christopher Nolan - Inception
David O. Russell - The Fighter

The directors waiting in the wings (in case one of those movies wind up not being good) would be Martin Scorsese, Mike Leigh, and Peter Weir.

With the rest, like I said, their films would have to be too big to ignore in order for them to get nominated. Exceptions are for Coppola and James L. Brooks... they could be nominated if their films wind up being really good, but I don't have much hope for their films. Somewhere looks too similar to Lost in Translation and Everything You've Got might wind up as tame and safe as Spanglish.

But, it's a wide open year with some old greats and some new blood being thrown into the mix. Because there aren't any surefire picks, it makes for a more interesting year Oscar-wise. Can't wait to see how it all unfolds.